It looks like a rather innocuous Illustration Rare (IR) from the Pokemon Trading Card Game’s (TCG’s) newest release, Black Bolt, is just surging upward in the second-hand market.
Seismitoad (IR)
The card in question is Seismitoad. This IR started off with an average market price of about $65 since Black Bolt’s debut on the western market last July 18th. It has been three weeks since its release, and the average market price of the Seismitoad IR has continued to rise.
Copies of the Seismitoad IR peaked at an average market price of about $235 last week. The average price value has shown a small decrease to a $212 market value and seems to be holding steady for the moment.
At first glance, the card, even if it is an IR variant, shouldn’t have shot up in price so quickly. The Pokemon TCG is no stranger to bad actors who could be manipulating the market to artificially increase the value of certain cards.
That said, this Seismitoad IR is likely a special case.
Shinji Kanda
The artist for the Seismitoad (IR) is Shinji Kanda, who has been an illustrator for the Pokemon TCG since 2022, where he made his debut with Magmar from the Brilliant Stars expansion set.
Shinji Kanda’s art makes use of rich textures and detailed linework that highlight the stylized depiction of the Pokemon he’s illustrated. Kanda’s art style is very evocative and could be comparable to folk art.
Other Works
Shinji Kanda’s other works include Roaring Moon ex from Prismatic Evolutions, Magikarp from Paldea Evolved, and Giratina V from Lost Origin. Each of these cards can command a princely sum in their own right.
The full alternate art of Giratina V, in particular, is selling for about $400 to $500 on average in second-hand marketplaces like TCGplayer.
Given the track record some of Shinji Kanda’s work has carved in the second-hand market, the trend the Seismitoad IR has shown is more understandable.
Natural Phenomena
In Seismitoad IR's case, it appears that collectors/fans of Kanda’s work are driving demand, rather than the card's appeal in competitive events.
On top of this, it's also believed that Seismitoad IR is rather than many other IR cards in the set, since it can only be found in Black Bolt.
Due to this additional scarcity, the low supply will have made the price of Seismitoad IR significantly more volatile, leading to this immense price spike.
We can’t say how the market will shake up with the Seismitoad IR in the future. The previously mentioned Giratina V has some vendors demanding nearly $1,000 for a single copy. On the other hand, you have cards like Roaring Moon ex that used to command a $200 to $300 market average a few months ago, now sitting at half that amount ($150 average).
Sadly, Seismitoad IR could go either way, and it's difficult to say which direction things will go at the moment. As much as this card is difficult to find, the lack of competitive appeal puts a dampener on the price.
On top of this, there's also the fact that $200+ is a huge amount of money to spend. If players suspect that scalpers are the cause of this immense price, many won't want to part with their money. Ultimately, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.